Energy Price Forecast: A Mixed Outlook for Consumers


Anticipated shifts in the energy price cap have garnered attention, suggesting potential changes in electricity and gas bills for consumers. A prominent forecast by research firm Cornwall Insight offers insights into the upcoming trajectory of energy costs, presenting a picture of fluctuating bills in the months ahead.

Projected Price Movements:

In the final quarter of 2023, energy bills are predicted to experience a decrease, creating an optimistic scenario for consumers seeking relief from their financial burden. However, this decline is expected to be short-lived, as Cornwall Insight’s analysis points toward an impending uptick in energy costs during 2024. The primary driver behind this projection is the potential impact of labor strikes at Australian gas facilities, which may lead to heightened gas prices, subsequently influencing electricity bills.

A Glimpse of Savings:

Consumers, nonetheless, can anticipate a period of respite from soaring bills commencing in October. According to Cornwall Insight’s evaluation, the energy regulator Ofgem is poised to lower the price cap to £1,823 for the average annual household bill. This proposed reduction, amounting to £230 from the current average of £2,053, is largely attributed to altered perceptions of energy consumption. Ofgem has revised downwards what constitutes average energy use, as households have been observed to consume less energy.

  • Current Average Bill: £2,053
  • Projected New Average Bill: £1,823
  • Savings: £230

Shifting Parameters:

Under the previous measure of average energy consumption, households could have anticipated annual bills totaling £1,925, highlighting the regulatory changes’ impact on the cost dynamics.

Regulatory Framework:

Ofgem exercises its authority by placing caps on the amount energy providers can charge per unit of power. These caps are subject to periodic adjustments in response to the volatility of wholesale oil and gas prices, with revisions made every quarter. The upcoming announcement by Ofgem, slated for August 25th, will unveil the revised cap, which will take effect from October 1st.

Mixed Prospects:

The prognosis beyond 2023 showcases a contrasting trajectory. Cornwall Insight’s projections reveal that the price cap is slated to ascend to £1,979 for the average household bill starting from January 1st of the following year. This upward trend is expected to persist in subsequent months, with prices anticipated to reach £1,915 in April and decrease slightly to £1,867 by July.

  • January 2024: £1,979
  • April 2024: £1,915
  • July 2024: £1,867

Factors at Play:

A recent assessment by Ofgem, conducted in June, underscores that households in the UK have demonstrated decreased electricity and gas consumption. This reduction in energy usage is attributed to the interplay of rising energy prices, implementation of energy-saving practices, and weather fluctuations.

Critique and Consideration:

The efficacy of the price cap mechanism has faced scrutiny for its inability to safeguard consumers from mounting energy bills. Dr. Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, emphasized the limitations of the price cap in maintaining affordability. He suggested that alternative strategies, such as social tariffs, warrant exploration to ensure the stability and economic feasibility of energy consumption for consumers. Even Jonathan Brearley, the head of Ofgem, acknowledged the shortcomings of the current approach, labeling it as “very broad and crude.” Brearley urged government ministers to contemplate alternative measures that would better serve the interests of the public.


As energy bills undergo an anticipated ebb and flow, consumers stand to experience a dynamic landscape of costs in the coming months and years. Cornwall Insight’s insightful projections shed light on the intricate interplay of factors that influence energy prices, highlighting the complex nature of the energy market and the challenges in providing consistent financial relief to consumers.

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