Surge in Support for Welsh Independence: New Poll Reveals Promising Trend


Recent months have witnessed a remarkable surge in support for Welsh independence, as indicated by the findings of a fresh poll. The data showcases a substantial rise in the inclination towards Wales exiting the United Kingdom, with the figures standing at 29%, a level closely reminiscent of its pandemic-era proportions.

Positive Response from YesCymru

Welsh independence advocacy group YesCymru has hailed this poll as a “stunning” revelation. While they have promoted a 38% endorsement for independence, it’s important to note that this calculation excludes respondents who indicated uncertainty. The survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, encompassed insights from 1,068 eligible voters residing in Wales.

Welcome News for Independence Advocates

This upswing in support serves as a heartening development for proponents of Welsh independence. The positive shift emerges in the wake of a prior survey commissioned by WalesOnline in March, which had illustrated a substantial decline in support for independence.

Growing Dissatisfaction with Westminster

Geraint Thomas, a board member of YesCymru, underscores the significance of this opinion poll, highlighting the escalating disillusionment among the people of Wales toward Westminster. The growing appetite for independence from the central UK government becomes increasingly evident.

Momentum Towards the “Yes” Vote

Thomas points out that the momentum behind the “Yes” vote in a potential future referendum has gained an average of one percentage point each month over the past six months, a trend that stands out for its rarity. The poll also reveals widespread backing for a distinct Welsh Parliament, with 55% of respondents expressing support and only 23% opposing the idea.

Insights into Electoral Preferences

The poll delves into voting intentions for both Westminster and Senedd (Welsh Parliament) elections. The results highlight Labour’s significant share of the vote, capturing 32% and 31% for Westminster and Senedd elections respectively.

Political Dynamics and Implications

The poll’s findings also hint at a decline in the Conservative Party’s vote share and forecast challenges for Plaid Cymru in an upcoming General Election. While the Party of Wales garners a modest 10% in General Election polling, it returns to its typical 15% share in Senedd elections.


The current surge in support for Welsh independence, as depicted by the latest poll, is a notable shift that aligns with the evolving sentiments of the Welsh populace. The results mirror the growing disconnect between Wales and Westminster, indicating a momentum that advocates for independence can capitalize on.

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